Modelling the development of the regional chemical industry: forecast estimates and growth prospects
Keywords:
chemical industry, regional development, modeling, cluster analysis, regression analysis, forecasting, economic and mathematical modelsAbstract
The article is devoted to the study of the problems of modeling the development of the chemical industry in the region in the context of limited resources and an unstable economic environment. The purpose of the article is to develop and apply mathematical modeling tools to generate forecast estimates for the development of chemical industry enterprises in the region, followed by the development of practical recommendations for optimizing the industry development strategy. The methodological basis of the study is an integrated approach, including cluster and regression analysis, implemented using the Statistica 10.0 statistical package. Within the framework of the cluster analysis, using the Ward and k-means methods, the chemical industry enterprises of the region are differentiated into four statistically significant clusters. Regression models describing the dependence of net profit on key factors of operating and financial activities are built for the clusters. The results of the study revealed the heterogeneity of the determinants of net profit in different clusters, which confirms the hypothesis about the need for a differentiated approach to the management of chemical industry enterprises in the region. The developed models can be used for forecasting, scenario analysis and making informed management decisions aimed at increasing the financial stability and profitability of enterprises in the industry.
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