Development of a system-dynamic model analysis and forecasting of the development trend of the machine-building industry of the Donetsk People's Republic
Keywords:
mechanical engineering industry, regional industrial complex, industrial policy, economic and mathematical model, system dynamics, spline interpolation, Donetsk People's RepublicAbstract
The study substantiates the need to use economic and mathematical modeling tools for the purpose of substantiating management decisions on the development of the mechanical engineering industry of the DPR and forms a set of requirements that the developed economic and mathematical model must meet. This made it possible to justify the use of the system-dynamic modeling apparatus to achieve the stated goals.
Dependency functions were constructed using the spline method of trend interpolation, allowing to obtain smooth polynomials of low degrees used to describe functional dependencies at data break points. Correlation-regression models of dependence have been developed, which form the basis for the implementation of the inertial scenario within the framework of the system-dynamic model for analyzing and forecasting trends in the development of the machine-building industry of the Donetsk People's Republic. A system-dynamic model for analyzing and forecasting trends in the development of the machine-building industry of the Donetsk People's Republic has been developed, which allows for ensuring the transparency and validity of decisions made by forecasting the consequences of using various regulators, such as, for example, the volume of government orders, the level of interest rates, tariffs for housing and communal services, tax rates, etc.
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